Wednesday, October 19, 2016

NC Preview

On Thursday, Oct 27th athletes from across the city will descend on Mooney's Bay for the NCSSA Cross Country Running Championships.  Some will be there for the thrill of the competition, some for intrinsic reasons, while others will be vying to punch their ticket to OFSAA.

Midget Girls

West Champs Nepean are undefeated this year winning the Gryphon Open and the Rebelles Invite along with the West, almost doubling up on East Champs Lisgar at the Gryphon Open.  Lisgar adds East Champ Betty to their roster to improve their odds against the Knights.  West runner up South Carleton was the top NC school at the Turkey Trot, second only to OFSAA medal favorites Kingston CVI and have the tightest 1 - 4 spread at just over 1:30.  Both Lisgar and Colonel By will need big runs from their back end if they hope to qualify over either of the two West schools.

Individually, All Saints Lauren Reid has won both her races this fall, including a big win at the Turkey Trot in Kemptville, and Skye Pellerin (St. FX) has been her closest NC pursuer in her lone race of the season so far.  Katie Newlove (St. Peter) missed a corner only 150m from the finish line to get outkicked by Emma Betty, but Betty, Bolduc (Beatrice Desloges),  Veldcamp (AY Jackson) and Chadwick (Nepean) have all taken turns beating one or more of each other this season.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1.  Nepean  (75), 2.  South Carleton  (90), Lisgar (120)
Individuals - 1.  Reid (All Saints), 2. Newlove (St. Peter), 3. Pellerin (St. Fx)

Midget Boys

Ridgemont has a great front 3 in Fast, Omar Ali and Anvari, going 1 - 2 - 3 at the Rebelles Invitational and 1 - 4 - 5 in the East.  There is a big gap back to #4, but their front three should keep the score low enough to secure victory.  The battle for the second OFSAA spot should be between Louis Riel and West Champ Longfields Davidson.  While Longfields is led by a low single digit threat in Roy, it's over a minute and a half back to their second scorer, while Louis Riel packed 5 runners in just over a minute at East.  Expect Louis to pack all four scorers in between Longfields top 2 to try and secure the second spot.

Fast and Meredith (De La Salle) have had two great battles the past two weeks, with Fast's two winning margins totalling just over two seconds.  These two are head and shoulders ahead of the competition, with Sanger (Glebe) and Earle (Woodroffe) well back at both the East (60 seconds) and the Capital Challenge (90 seconds).  After these chase two come Roy, and Fast's teammates, Ducharme (Louis Riel), and Saravanamuttoo (Glebe) before another gap to McHale (John McCrae).

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Ridgetmont (50), 2. Louis Riel (67), 3. Longfields-Davidson (111)
Individuals - 1. Fast (Ridgemont), 2. Meredith (De La Salle), 3. Sanger (Glebe)

Junior Girls

Glebe is the class of the field.  They have added strength to their roster that captured bronze last year at OFSAA, and defeated OFSAA silver medalists Theriault (Timmins) at the Trinity Invite, but  Theriault returned the favor at the Capital XC Challenge.  Glebe went a near perfect 1 - 2 - 4 - 5 at East behind individual favorite Shapansky and should be able to retain their title and have another crack at the podium in Port Hope. Last year's runner up, All Saints had a bit of scare from Borden at the West meet, but should be able to hold them off again to secure a spot on the OFSAA startline.

Shapansky leads the charge and is the heavy favorite having beat all NC competition over the past two seasons.  Wilson (Woodroffe) has only been bettered by Shapansky, beating both Shields (All Saints) and Barrett (Glebe) by similar margins, which should make for an exciting race for the third spot.  Behind these front four, of which three should qualify on teams, the next spots look to be a battle between MacAskill (Earl of March), Roy (Louis Riel) and Galbraith (Franco Ouest).

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (35), 2. All Saints (56), Borden (87)
Individuals - 1. Shapansky (Glebe), 2. Wilson (Woodroffe), 3. Barrett (Glebe)

Junior Boys

The Junior Boys competition boils down to a two horse race, but like their female counterparts, the Glebe Junior Boys have dominated all NC competition this fall, winning the Gryphon Open, Turkey Trot and the Capital XC Challenge before scoring a meager 16 points to capture the East title.  Only Colonel By has a chance to stay close and these two teams should, barring any major upset, both secure a spot on the start line the first Saturday of November.

Pensom (Glebe) has been able to turn the tables on Johnston-Nielsen (Borden) who beat him at the NC Meet last year, beating him at the Gryphon Open and the Turkey Trot this fall and comes in as the favorite.  Jones (Colonel By) also got the best of Johnston-Nielsen at the Turkey Trot, but was beaten by teammate Cox and Cunningham (Glebe), who have not been able to get the best of Johston-Nielsen in two previous meetings.  With four of these top 5 likely on qualifying teams, a top 10 finish at NC's could earn a trip to OFSAA with Price (Borden), Allan (Ashbury), Soler Perez (Ridgemont), Vandenburghe (Mother Teresa), and Gould (Merivale) battling it out for the final spot.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (24). 2. Colonel By (48), 3. Bell (125)
Individuals - 1. Pensom (Glebe), 2. Johnston-Neilsen (Borden), 3. Cox (Colonel By)

Senior Girls

The Glebe Senior Girls have not lost a race on Canadian soil in two years (their lone defeat a second place finish at McQuaid in Rochester, NY last year) and we shouldn't expect that to change in the coming week.  Although the Lady Gryphons will have their hands full with Bishop Strachan and Lawrence Park (Toronto) at OFSAA, that has been their focus all season.  Glebe has won the Trinity Invite, Gryphon Open, Turkey Trot, Capital Challenge and East meet, all by very healthy margins and with very different rosters each time.  The second spot should be a tight battle between East runner up Canterbury and West Champs Nepean.  Canterbury got the best of the Knights at their only meeting of the season, early on at the Gryphon Open.

The individual race will feature a dual between the last two OFSAA Junior Girls Champions, as McCulloch (Longfields) won it in '14 and Weston (Glebe) won it in '15.  These two girls should be well ahead of their closest pursuers, with only Shepherd (Glebe) likely to stay close.  McCulloch has won both her races this fall by huge margins, while Weston has beat all NC competition she has faced this fall by big gaps as well.  Turkey Trot Champ Shepherd (Glebe) who has run alone behind Weston and well ahead of everyone else this fall might find some company early on in West Runner Up Laurin (St. Paul) and Renon (Pierre Savard) but should have the strength to run away from them in the end.  Scotten (Sir Wilfrid Laurier) and Soroczan-Wright (Colonel By) will likely snag the last two qualifying spots, but look for one of two Gibson's Kiana (Merivale) and Emily (West Carleton) to try and sneak in and steal a spot.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (22), 2. Canterbury (97), 3. Nepean (114)
Individuals - 1. McCulloch (Longfields), 2. Weston (Glebe), 3. Shepherd (Glebe)

Senior Boys

Glebe vs. Franco Ouest (Round 2).  Last year the Vikings beat the Gryphons at West (while Glebe was still in the West Conference), but Glebe returned the favor with a 2 point victory at NCs, but the Vikings beat Glebe again at OFSAA.  This year both squads look to do battle again with a slightly different look to their squads.  Franco will lead with individual favorite Mather, but may have a rather big gap back to his fourth man (3 minute gap at the West).  Glebe on the other hand could pack five or six runners very close (only 22 seconds separated 1 - 5 at the Turkey Trot, and only 10 seconds at East, although the gap was as big as one minute early on at the Gryphon Open).  Glebe has a couple of victories under their belt this fall with wins on the NC course at the Gryphon Open and in Kemptville at the Turkey Trot, while the West Meet was Franco's first outing.  Nepean and Louis will likely battle it out for the third spot but it is unlikely either of these teams will have a chance to unseat the two favorites.

Mather was impressive in his only race so far this fall with a big 53 second gap to win the West over   Pedersen (Merivale) who has been second every outing this fall but to different opponents each time (Mather, Plamondon and McCann).   Nshimiyimana (Rideau) had an impressive win at East, outlegging last years runner up Alie Lamarache (Gloucester) who managed to pay back both Gryphon Open Champ McCann (Franco Cite) and Rebelles Invite winner Rioux (Louis Riel) in the process.  With only Mather likely to qualify on a team, that leaves one more spot on the bus to Port Hope which will be an exciting battle between the boys mentioned above along with Turcanu (Bell) and Zanetti (Borden)

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (61), 2. Franco Ouest (72), 3. Louis Riel (106)
Individuals - 1. Mather (Franco Ouest), 2. Nishimiyimana (Rideau), 3. Alie-Lamarche (Gloucester)

Information about the upcoming NC Championships (race times, course maps, along with all relevant OFSAA paperwork) can be found on the Glebe XC page.  Best of luck to all athletes competing at NC's and to all our NC athletes who go on to represent our region at the OFSAA Championships.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Does 2 or 3 teams qualify ? How many individuals?